Don’t expect good news for wine prices or wine quality in 2016, and it’s more than my curmudgeonly cynicism saying so. The wine industry’s best price forecaster expects price increases next year, while a wine blogger who has been spot on about decreasing quality over the last couple of years sees more of the same.
Wine prices, says Rob McMillan of Silicon Valley Bank, will go up slightly next year, citing what looks to be a reduced harvest in California over the past three blockbusters, low gasoline prices, and producer optimism that they can raise prices. In addition, says McMillan, the numbers so far this year suggest that prices have been increasing, even though overall sales have been modest.
Interestingly, he doesn’t use the word premiumization to describe what’s going on, given that McMillan was one of the first people to identify the trend, that U.S. wine drinkers are trading up to more expensive wine. In fact, he seems almost surprised that prices will go up, given that “the the world’s economies are still struggling and our own [economy] isn’t setting any record.”
McMillan doesn’t define slightly, but my guess is that we’ll see as much as a dollar or so on a $15 bottle of wine, not that it will be that obvious. Those $9.99 wines will go up to $10.99, but there will various discounts, like case and club membership, to soften the blow. Plus, we’ll see even more new wines in the $12 to $15 category, as producers entice wine drinkers to spend a couple of bucks more for the same kind of wine they bought before.
As to quality, let me quote my pal Steve McIntosh at Winethropology. “The wine world is going to hell in a handbasket,” he emailed me, citing this post, in which he details (and it’s excruciating) how California winemakers are bastardizing wines that cost as much as $20 so they taste the way a focus group thinks they should taste.
In this, his post dovetails with what I’ve tasted over the past year, as producers focus on manipulation to push wines in the focus group direction and paying less attention to grape quality and varietal character in the process. This has been the case not just for wines from California, but from France, Spain, and Italy. A distributor friend, who has been in the business for 20 years, said he has seen wine quality go backwards, toward where it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In fact, so many wines have been so poorly made that I’m thinking about posting negative reviews, something I never thought would be necessary. But these wines are so dishonest that someone needs to call them on it.
I expect a wine to taste like wine, and not what Steve calls cough syrup. But apparently that’s too much to hope for these days.