What if a scientific study found that increases in wine alcohol levels were not related to global warming, but were a choice made by winemakers? How would that change the debate about high alcohol?
We're reasonably close to finding out. Julian M. Alston, the director of the Robert Mondavi Institute Center for Wine Economics at the University of California-Davis, is in the middle of research -- perhaps seminal research -- that could answer that question. Alston agreed to talk to me about his work with two caveats: First, that I emphasize that this is an on-going project, and that he hasn't reached any conclusions yet, and second, that he couldn't be too specific about the project because he has promised an exclusive interview to the Wine Spectator when he is finished.
Still, we had plenty to talk about. More, after the jump:
The high alcohol controversy is not only bitter and vicious, but there aren't a lot of facts to go around. Which is, of course, why it can be bitter and vicious, as I have seen on the blog -- and which I expect to see in the comments for this post, even though I'm not making a judgment either way.
That's why Cain winemaker Christopher Howell can say that winemakers are the reason for high alcohol wines, while noted wine writer Charles Olken can rip my pal Dave McIntyre for daring to suggest the same thing. And, contrary to Olken's assertions, Dave does know what he is doing, has a fine palate, and deserves better than the cheap shots Olken took at him.
Though there are many theories about why alcohol levels have increased, little research has been done in the area. That's what makes Alston's work so important. His preliminary report, which was presented to the annual meeting of the American Association of Wine Economists last month, noted the alcohol level on the label is often wrong, and that there doesn't seem to be a statistical relationship between high alcohol levels and global warming.
I was more interested in the second point, while Alston was intrigued with the first. Since wine is taxed by alcohol level, he asked, why doesn't the federal government do a better job of policing label alcohol levels? In fact, he had to get the alcohol label information for his research from the Liquor Control Board of Ontario, which tests every bottle it sells in provincial stores. And why Ontario? Because the U.S. agency that regulates wine labels doesn't have that information.
To the second point: Alston and his colleagues used 91,432 wines from around the world, dating to 1991, that were listed in the Ontario database. Then, they compiled climate data for the growing season in the world's wine regions, and looked to see if there was a statistical relationship between the increase in temperatures and the growth in alcohol levels. What they found was stunning. "[I]t it would take a whopping 20 degree Fahrenheit increase in the average temperature in the growing season to account for a 1 percentage point increase in the average alcohol content of wine." Which did not happen.
Which brings us, once more, to the caveats. Alston has no opinion about whether high alcohol is good or bad; this is research that doesn't make judgments. Also, this is preliminary research, and the findings could change.
Finally, Alston's work has been generally well received. The comments from his colleagues have been favorable, and he has heard almost nothing from the cyber-ether. That's an irony the Wine Curmudgeon appreciates.
Any person working in a winery anywhere near the winemaking team knows 100% fact that the higher alcohols have nothing to do with global warming. I'm a bit amazed that there are people that even consider this as plausable? I mean, seriously? We need studies by University professors to slap us with blatant common sense?
The only controversy is WHY. Why are winemakers going with higher alcohols, and why are the people in charge of ordering labels low-balling the true content?
Any discussion about if it is global warming or not is a waste of time.
Posted by: YouMakeItSoEasy | July 11, 2011 at 12:51 PM
I believe another piece of interesting information would be the average picking dates. If they are picking later, then obviously there will be higher sugars and the resulting higher alcohol.
Another significant issue is the potency of the yeast strains being used and how has the conversion factor changed (or has it?) in the last 40 years.
Or, you can just say Robert Parker and everybody will know what you're talking about. Fortunately, I was drinking wine before Parker and will be drinking wine after Parker. Luck me.
Posted by: Ed Masciana | July 11, 2011 at 12:53 PM
More research done by remote analysis by a non industry source that is very much uninformed. The climate is changing, it has always changed and likely continue to change. Enough spittle about conclusions that are premature. This type of work is what is wrong with regulation creation, transparent and peer reviewed science plus an open climate plan is needed not bits of dribble that causes reasonable folks to turn away from the process. Ops! I exhaled...........
Posted by: Pete Opatz | July 11, 2011 at 01:28 PM
To suggest that global warming is causing high alcohols in wine is to suggest that a warmer season interferes with a winemaker's ability to sample a vineyard, measure grape maturity and schedule a harvest crew. Can't imagine anyone stupid enough to even consider that.
Posted by: Morton | July 11, 2011 at 03:31 PM
May I suggest that you read David Darlington's new book "An Ideal Wine". Especially interesting are the chapters that cover Leo McClosky and his anaylsis of quality as derived from wine scorer preference and consumer preference as they relate to ripness and ETOH. It is a good read and covers a lot of this territory with respect to choice or climate.
Posted by: Joel Peterson | July 11, 2011 at 03:37 PM
While attending a Muscato seminar recently a winemaker from the Asti region vowed that he could not confirm or deny global warming, but would vow that it is weather change. His grandfather was a winemaker in the Asti region as was his father before him. When making sparkling wine the harvest window is 2-3 weeks. He stated in the last 10 years his harvest has slowly moved from 3rd week in September to 3rd to 4th week in August. His fruit is getting riper quicker.
Posted by: Michael Borboa | July 11, 2011 at 06:08 PM
At a tasting in the Dry Creek Valley a few years ago, someone asked why winemakers were producing wines with higher alcohols. It was David Rafanelli, I believe, who replied, "Because we can." If memory serves, he may have mentioned global warming, but more relevant were vineyard techniques (trellising) that helped ripen grapes more evenly, and more efficient yeast strains that carried through fermentation. And of course, the choice of when to harvest. I don't believe wine critics were mentioned.
Posted by: Dave McIntyre | July 12, 2011 at 12:06 PM